Aguadilla Thermal Video
A U.S. Customs and Border Protection DHC-8 maritime patrol aircraft took off from Rafael Hernández Airport at about 21:16 local time. Its Wescam MX-15 infrared turret then recorded about three minutes of video of a small warm object crossing the airport area and moving towards the coast. In the video the object appears to dip into the sea and re-emerge as two. The video leaked onto YouTube, and in 2013 The Black Vault received an anonymous message about it. SCU obtained an original copy from a vetted, anonymous source on 20 Oct 2013. In 2015 the Scientific Coalition for Ufology (SCU; Robert Powell et al.) published a 155-page analysis. It concluded the object was 3–5 ft long, travelled at about 40–120 mph, at times below 40 ft altitude, and entered water without slowing. On 20 March 2025 the Pentagon's All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) published a case resolution. It assessed with high confidence that the objects showed no anomalous or transmedium behaviour, and with moderate confidence that they were a pair of sky lanterns drifting at wind speed, about 8 mph. The apparent high speed was attributed to parallax and the apparent "water entry" to loss of thermal contrast. SCU disputes AARO's reconstruction. The key primary items, the video and FAA radar data, are public, so both analyses can be checked.
Evidence, in date order (3)
- 26 Apr 2013U.S. Customs and Border Protection DHC-8sensor dataabout three minutes of infrared video with telemetry of the object SCU, "2013 Aguadilla Puerto Rico UAP" (Powell et al. 2015, rev. 2023), with video file, Zenodo
- 26 Apr 2013FAA radar via USAF RADES (FOIA)sensor dataradar data matching the aircraft track, with unknown primary targets north of the airport SCU, "2013 Aguadilla Puerto Rico UAP" (Powell et al. 2015, rev. 2023), with video file, Zenodo
- 20 Mar 2025AAROofficialcase resolution confirming the objects were real and recorded, assessed as probable sky lanterns AARO, "The Puerto Rico Object" Case Resolution, 20 Mar 2025 (25-P-0553), copy via The Black Vault
How plausible · High
Government infrared video, FAA radar and a formal AARO review; AARO proposes sky lanterns, not demonstrated. (Revised 2026-10-23: a single proposed explanation is noted, not deducted.)
- ●●Access CBP aircraft camera and the airport tower.
- ●●No gain sought Government data.
- ●●Independent convergence Video, radar and the tower's visual sighting.
- ●●Checkable details check out Video and radar are public.
- ●●Physical traces or official reaction Three minutes of IR video and radar.
- ●○Restraint The SCU study measures rather than claims.
Plausibility weighs how well an account fits where secrecy hides the documents by design, so missing records never count against it. Strength measures what is documented. Assessed 2026-10-23.
On the record
- AARO (25-P-0553), pp.1–7: "AARO assesses with high confidence that the objects did not exhibit anomalous behavior or transmedium capabilities … with moderate confidence that the objects were a pair of sky lanterns." Its STK reconstruction puts the objects at about 656 ft, moving about 8 mph in a straight line, consistent with a recorded 9.8 mph east-northeast wind. It says they stayed over land. The apparent "split" is two objects, which separate visibly at 00:29.56, 00:40.76 and 00:47.00. Pixel analysis gives a size under 1 m. AARO says the objects did not pass behind the utility pole. The apparent vanishing into the sea is "thermal crossover" or lack of contrast against the ocean, plus increasing range and scattered cloud at 3,000 ft. AARO "confirmed with local hospitality industry vendors" that hotels commonly release sky lanterns. It acknowledges that "the video's poor quality reduces AARO's confidence in categorically identifying the objects." It also records two partner assessments it rejected: marine birds, with the partner estimating 35–130 mph at 300–900 ft, and mylar balloons.
- Date discrepancy: AARO dates the event "April 26, 2013" and the recording "9:22 p.m. local time". SCU (p.1, App. E) and the on-screen UTC times put it at 21:20–21:22 local on 25 April, which is 01:22Z on 26 April. AARO appears to mix the UTC date with local time. Its thermal-crossover argument rests on sunset at 19:48 local and the time since sunset (about 1.5 h), and that holds on either date.
- SCU, from FAA radar data: the DHC-8's radar track matches the video telemetry, which confirms the video's authenticity. Unknown primary-only targets were present over the ocean 2–3 miles north and northwest of the airport. The interpretation is SCU analysis; the radar data themselves are government records.
Claims
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Sources
- AARO, "The Puerto Rico Object" Case Resolution, 20 Mar 2025 (25-P-0553), copy via The Black Vault
- The Black Vault, "DoD Report Says Aguadilla UFO Was Just Sky Lanterns; Previous Scientific Studies Claim Otherwise" (Mar 2025)
- SCU, "2013 Aguadilla Puerto Rico UAP" (Powell et al. 2015, rev. 2023), with video file, Zenodo
- Metabunk, "Aguadilla Infrared Footage of 'UFOs' – Probably Hot Air Wedding Lanterns" (skeptical analysis thread)
- Wikipedia: The Age of Disclosure