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2019 · Palomar Observatory, California (plates); Nordita / Stockholm University, Sweden (research)

Beatriz Villarroel, VASCO and the pre-Sputnik Palomar transients

On the record
Strength B · 8/10 · 2 independent
Evidence 3/4 · Witnesses 3/3 · Backing 2/3

Named astronomers publish peer-reviewed analyses of the original plates, with an independent replication, though plate defects are still argued.

Plausibility High
Score 14 · 7 factors for, 0 against

Named astronomers publish peer-reviewed analyses of the original plates, with independent replication; plate defects are still argued.

See the factors ↓

Natural cause proposed, not demonstrated
Nine transients on a 12 April 1950 Palomar plate · Villarroel et al. 2021, Scientific Reports 11, 12794 (CC BY 4.0); plate data Palomar Observatory Sky Survey
WhenVASCO papers 2019-2026; POSS-I plates taken 1949-1957
WherePalomar Observatory, California (plates); Nordita / Stockholm University, Sweden (research)
Backing2 independent
Evidencedocuments, sensor data

Beatriz Villarroel is an astronomer at Nordita (Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics), Stockholm University. She leads VASCO ("Vanishing & Appearing Sources during a Century of Observations"), which compares old sky surveys with modern ones to find objects that vanished. The project's search of the First Palomar Observatory Sky Survey (POSS-I, plates taken before Sputnik in October 1957) turned up thousands of short-lived, star-like "transients". Some appear in groups within one exposure, and some appear in lines. The papers built on this work in stages: - *Villarroel et al. 2021 (Scientific Reports*): nine sources appeared and vanished on a single April 1950 plate. The authors say this could be plate contamination or, if contamination is excluded, sub-second sunlight glints from objects near geosynchronous orbit. - Hambly & Blair 2024 (RAS Techniques and Instruments): these transients are "likely to be spurious artefacts of the photographic emulsion". - Villarroel et al. 2025 (PASP): aligned multiple-transient events, plus a strong shortage of transients inside Earth's shadow. - Bruehl & Villarroel 2025 (Scientific Reports):** transients were 45% more likely within ±1 day of a nuclear test, and each additional UAP report on a date was linked to 8.5% more transients. In 2026 the group and independent authors posted further preprints, some supporting the result and some arguing over plate defects. Villarroel is also named as a co-founder of the Stockholm-based Beyond Institute, a foundation for "the data-driven scientific study of anomalies and non-human artifacts".

Evidence, in date order (2)

  1. 2026Brian Dohertydocument
    independent rerun reproduces the nuclear-test link and the Earth-shadow shortage Doherty 2026, Independent replication (preprint)
  2. 2026Ivo Buskosensor data
    similar narrow transients on 1950s Hamburg Observatory plates Busko 2026, Fast transients on Hamburg plates (preprint)

How plausible · High

Named astronomers publish peer-reviewed analyses of the original plates, with independent replication; plate defects are still argued.

  • ●●
    Access Original plates.
  • ●●
    No gain sought Science.
  • ●●
    Restraint Statistical claims only.
  • ●●
    Character record Peer-reviewed.
  • ●●
    Independent convergence Replicated.
  • ●●
    Checkable details check out Published.

Plausibility weighs how well an account fits where secrecy hides the documents by design, so missing records never count against it. Strength measures what is documented. Assessed 2026-10-23.

On the record

  • Villarroel is an astronomy researcher at Nordita, Stockholm University, and "forskningsledare för forskningsprojektet VASCO" (research leader of VASCO). VASCO aims "att identifiera astronomiska objekt som försvunnit helt från vår natthimmel" (to identify astronomical objects that have entirely vanished from our night sky) — firsthand (official) — Stockholm University.
  • The first VASCO search compared about 600 million USNO-B1.0 objects with Pan-STARRS DR1. It found about 150,000 preliminary candidates and about 100 point sources seen in only one epoch — analysis — Villarroel et al. 2020 (*AJ*).
  • The citizen-science project had examined 15,593 candidate image pairs and classified 798 objects as "vanished", with a volunteer network led by amateur associations mainly in Algeria, Cameroon and Nigeria — firsthand — Villarroel et al. 2022 (*Universe*).
  • The POSS-I red search found 298,165 sources seen only on POSS-I plates. Most were explained by cross-matches, asteroids, variables and artefacts, leaving 5,399 unidentified transients — analysis — Solano, Villarroel & Rodrigo 2022 (*MNRAS*).
  • Nine point sources appeared within half an hour in a ~10 arcmin region of an April 1950 red plate, and are absent from earlier, later and modern images. The paper offers plate contamination or, if that is excluded, sub-second solar reflections from objects near geosynchronous orbit — analysis — Villarroel et al. 2021 (*Sci. Rep.*).
  • Three ~15th-magnitude sources within 10 arcsec, on POSS-I plates of 19 July 1952, vanished within an hour and are absent to magnitude 25.5 in 2023 Gran Telescopio Canarias images. "The explanation ... remains unclear" — analysis — Solano et al. 2023 (*MNRAS*).

Claims

The transients' sharper, rounder profiles are what sub-second flashes would look like on long exposures, not emulsion flawsanalysisSourced, unconfirmedVillarroel, Solano & Marcy 2025 (arXiv:2507.15896, preprint, reply to Hambly & Blair).
Machine-learning reclassification of 107,875 transients keeps the nuclear-window association (p = .024) and the Earth-shadow shortage (p < .0001)analysisSourced, unconfirmedBruehl, Doherty, Streblyanska & Villarroel 2026 (arXiv:2604.18799, preprint).
The transients cluster over specific Earth-projected "hotspots" (Pacific west of Mexico/Central America, southern Gulf of Mexico, southwestern US including the White Sands region)analysisSourced, unconfirmedBruehl, Villarroel et al. 2026 (arXiv:2609.09461, preprint).
A population at ~20,000-35,000 km altitude, with reflecting facets from centimetres to ~3 m; both natural and "non-natural" toy models are explored (analysis/speculation)analysisSourced, unconfirmedVillarroel et al. 2026 (arXiv:2609.05105, preprint).
Microscopy of the original plates for the 1950 and 1952 events cannot by itself tell a sub-second flash from an emulsion defectanalysisSourced, unconfirmedYang & Villarroel 2026 (arXiv:2608.26371, preprint).
An independent rerun of the authors' dataset reproduces the nuclear-test association (relative risk 1.45, p = 0.011) and the shadow shortageanalysisSourced, unconfirmedBrian Doherty 2026 (arXiv:2604.00056, preprint).

In The picture

They came when we split the atomFrom 1948, green fireballs flew over Los Alamos and Sandia; Sandia logged 209 sightings and Los Alamos held a conference of physicists about them. In March 1950 the Farmington paper named a dozen townspeople, a few hours' drive from Los Alamos, who watched hundreds of silvery discs fly in formation; in 1953 an F-84 c…
‹ Previous in Nuclear sitesPantex Plant: an unidentified object over the U.S. nuclear weapons assembly site16 of 23Next in Nuclear sites ›Submarine bait

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